Akio Okawara

Executive Director
Sumitomo Shoji Research Institute, Inc.

Since mid-November the morning and evening temperatures in Tokyo have dropped, and many people have started wearing coats. So it was quite a change last week when I took a business trip to Singapore, with 30°C heat and tropical squalls. But what struck me even more was the liveliness of this city-state, which has developed dramatically as a regional hub for the dynamic Asian region.

Last weekend (November 12–13) the United States hosted the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Hawaii, and this weekend the East Asian Summit will be held in Bali, Indonesia, attended for the first time by the US and Russian presidents. A major topic at these gatherings is the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has grown to a much greater undertaking than imagined when it was launched in 2006 as a trade and investment liberalization pact among Singapore and three other relatively small countries: Brunei, Chile, and New Zealand. The decision by the United States to seek membership in the TPP was of course a major factor, but its weight grew further with the declarations at the APEC summit by Canada, Japan, and Mexico of their desire to join in the TPP negotiations.

The idea of participation in the TPP is now the topic of lively discussion within Japan. But I am unpleasantly surprised at the divisive nature of this debate, including assertions by some that opponents of Japanese participation are ipso facto isolationists or anti-American. Surely we can agree that both free trade and domestic agriculture are important. The question ought to be how to open up Japan while optimizing overall conditions within the country. In today's age of globalization, national seclusion is not an option. And for Japan, with its aging, shrinking population, it is only natural to seek growth by tapping the dynamism of other Asian countries. Furthermore, it makes no sense for Japan to aim for a regional framework that excludes the United States, which is our country's main ally and continues to be the world's top economic power. Our country needs to clearly define its position as an Asia-Pacific nation.

The negotiations on enlargement of the TPP are still underway, and we cannot be sure what shape the final agreement will take. But we can compare it to a club, in that the rules are determined by the members. So it is worthwhile to be on the inside. A good club is one that maintains certain standards but at the same time is not cut off from the rest of the world, and we can expect the same of the TPP.

The presidency of the APEC forum has now shifted from the United States to Russia, and next year the APEC summit will be held in Vladivostok; Vladimir Putin is expected to chair the gathering as president of Russia. Next year will also bring Russia's formal accession to the World Trade Organization, and that country can be expected to make its presence increasingly felt as an Asia-Pacific nation in the period to come.

In the nineteeth century the British Empire and czarist Russia engaged in a "Great Game" of rivalry for supremacy in Central Asia. And what we might call a twenty-first-century Great Game now seems to be unfolding in East Asia. But we must keep it in mind that promoting the liberalization of trade and investment is supposed to be a win-win proposition.