Sumitomo Shoji Research Institute World Focus No. 34, January 2009

FOCUS

Environment: Creating a post-Kyoto framework

Global investment in sustainable energy sources grew rapidly over the past few years, but the financial crisis and the fall in energy prices are liable to cause the appetite for such investment to decline temporarily.

Negotiations will be getting into full swing on the creation of a new post-Kyoto Protocol international framework to deal with global warming in the period from 2013 on with the approach of the deadline for reaching an agreement at COP 15, the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which will be held in Copenhagen toward the end of this year. The biggest focus will be on getting the participation of all major emitters of greenhouse gases, including the United States and China. At present fewer than 30% of the world's countries are subject to binding emissions cuts; in order to make the post-Kyoto framework effective it will be essential to secure the participation of developing countries whose emissions are expected to grow in the future. Other important issues include the setting of equitable medium-term targets (including a review of the choice of base year), the spread of existing environmental technologies, and the promotion of technological innovation.

Incoming US President Barack Obama has announced plans to invest $150 billion in alternative energies, including solar and wind power, and create 5 million "green" jobs over the next 10 years. He has also talked about introducing emissions trading and aiming to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide to the 1990 level by 2020 and to 20% of that level by 2050. The new administration is thus expected to make a major switch from the Bush administration in the area of environmental policy.

The Chinese government is also showing willingness to tackle the issue of climate change on a national level with moves including the setting of binding requirements for the reduction of CO2 emissions and the promotion of renewable energies. But it remains unwilling to accept mandatory emissions cuts under the post-Kyoto framework; instead it says that it and other developing countries should bear "common but different responsibilities."

Emissions trading was launched in Europe in 2005 and was introduced on an experimental basis in Japan in 2008. It is slated to be introduced in the US Northeast in 2009 and in Canada and Australia in 2010.

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